What is the war over fossil fuels really about?
The first rule of geopolitics is INCENTIVES MATTER.
None of the geopolitical factions of the world are altruistic.
They ALL have a self-interest that drives their actions.
(sadly it is not to benefit the citizens unless that serves their goals in some way).
Once you look through the lens of incentives, it’s easier to see the big picture.
Who benefits from the fossil fuels industry being quickly destroyed?
Let’s cross off first who does NOT benefit.
1 - The OPEC nations (specifically Saudi Arabia) do NOT benefit. This is their primary source of revenue so abruptly moving away from oil & gas will harm their economy (and their power).
2 - The United States does NOT. The US is large nation without a decent rail system. The American economy runs on cars. The supply chain is completely dependent on trucks for delivery.
3 - China does NOT. The world’s largest manufacturer needs inexpensive energy (coal, oil, gas) to make products and ship them around the world.
4 - Russia does NOT. Similar to OPEC, Russia makes a lot of income from producing and exporting oil & gas.
NOTE: none of the economic & business factions in any of those groups has publicly called for an abrupt transition away from fossil fuels. The United States is complex as there are multiple factions who are not aligned with each other, but the business sector who keeps people employed is not pushing this agenda.
OK - who DOES benefit from an abrupt transition?
Who has:
(1) A LOT of political influence globally
(2) Does NOT produce fossil fuels
(3) Has a history of colonizing other parts of the world?
The European aristocrat class.
Also called the Western elites or the European oligarchy.
This group controls key resources, including large European banks, media outlets and many western politicians. This means they have control over policy and perceptions.
However, they do NOT control any significant oil producers.
This is KEY to understanding their motives.
You cannot be a global superpower without control over the energy supply.
What is the western elite strategy?
1 - Remove fossil fuel as a primary energy source for the world
2 - Move the globe to nuclear & hydrogen energy. This energy supply will be centrally controlled via European elites (climate agenda regulations will limit who is allowed to build an “approved” energy production facility)
3 - Damage the US economy so that capital doesn’t flow to the US during the transition
4 - Damage Russian economy & industry so that they don’t fill the gap during the transition
5 - Make Europe the center of the NEW global economy, driven by an energy supply controlled by European elites
This group of neo-colonizers see every other faction as subservient to them.
China - producers of cheap stuff
Africa - producers of cheap labor
Russia - producer of food & commodities
US - provider of military protection
Each global faction has a role to serve beneath the elites.
Very similar to when they colonized the globe a few centuries ago.
The class structure they want is feudalism, where there is a small ruling class, and everyone else if a subservient peasant who serves the royal ruling class.
Fortunately, none of the large super powers (Russia, China, Brazil, India) want to be subservient to the European elites.
The United States is complicated as there are multiple factions, and one very influential faction is controlled by the European elites.
This faction includes some key political leaders (Biden, neocons, liberal congress), new Wall Street (BlackRock), academia and the military industrial complex.
Therefore, you can’t generalize about “American Interests” as the factions within the US are not aligned.
The old Wall Street / Federal Reserve faction doesn’t care about citizens anymore than the European elites do, however, they absolutely care about the dollar.
Their economic strength comes from the dollar, and they will protect it at all costs.
However, The Fed doesn’t need the US dollar to be the only global reserve currency any longer, as that has harmed the US manufacturing sector and makes the US economy reliant on imports. That is a risk to national security.
The Fed is fighting their war with the European elites via interest rates. They are not increasing rates to fight inflation.
The war over over fossil fuels has nothing to do with pollution or the temperature of the planet.
It is simply a war over control of energy and resources.
However, if they were explicit in that agenda, the citizens of the world would rebel. They need a complacent and supportive population to complete their agenda.